The winter season began today at 12:47pm in the northern hemisphere. This day has the least amount of sunlight so the days will slowly be gaining more daylight time through June 21.
Bobby Deskins
Meteorologist 10 Connects
Monday, December 21, 2009
Sunday, December 20, 2009
The Winter Solstice occurs at 12:47 p.m. EST on Monday, December 21, 2009. This marks the beginning of Winter for the Northern Hemisphere and is the shortest day of the year with respect to daylight.
Winter officially begins just after noon on Monday as the Sun reaches it's lowest point in the southern sky. On Monday, December 21, 2009 at 12:47 p.m. EST the Sun will be directly over the Tropic of Capricorn which is about 23.5 degrees south of the equator. This is known as the winter solstice. As the earth rotates around the sun on it's tilted axis, the Northern Hemisphere appears to lean away from the Sun this time of year. That lean results in less direct sunlight thus shorter days and cooler temperatures. This day also marks the Summer Solstice for the Southern Hemisphere, the day Summer begins for them.
The Winter Solstice can be called the shortest day of the year, but it is more precisely called the day with the least amount of daylight hours. For Tampa, sunrise occurs at 7:17 a.m. with sunset at 5:39 p.m. That means there will be only 10 hours 22 minutes and 9 seconds of daylight on the Winter Solstice. Compare that to the Summer Solstice on June 21, 2010 when we see 13 hours 55 minutes and 2 seconds of daylight.
This year we continue to forecast an active winter season across Florida. With El Nino going strong, the southern jet stream has become more active. This has resulted in several storm systems tracking across the Gulf of Mexico and bringing much needed rainfall to our region during our dry season. This active pattern appears as if it will continue through the season. The long range forecast which includes this winter, continues to call for cooler than average temperatures with higher than average rainfall amounts.
Winter officially begins just after noon on Monday as the Sun reaches it's lowest point in the southern sky. On Monday, December 21, 2009 at 12:47 p.m. EST the Sun will be directly over the Tropic of Capricorn which is about 23.5 degrees south of the equator. This is known as the winter solstice. As the earth rotates around the sun on it's tilted axis, the Northern Hemisphere appears to lean away from the Sun this time of year. That lean results in less direct sunlight thus shorter days and cooler temperatures. This day also marks the Summer Solstice for the Southern Hemisphere, the day Summer begins for them.
The Winter Solstice can be called the shortest day of the year, but it is more precisely called the day with the least amount of daylight hours. For Tampa, sunrise occurs at 7:17 a.m. with sunset at 5:39 p.m. That means there will be only 10 hours 22 minutes and 9 seconds of daylight on the Winter Solstice. Compare that to the Summer Solstice on June 21, 2010 when we see 13 hours 55 minutes and 2 seconds of daylight.
This year we continue to forecast an active winter season across Florida. With El Nino going strong, the southern jet stream has become more active. This has resulted in several storm systems tracking across the Gulf of Mexico and bringing much needed rainfall to our region during our dry season. This active pattern appears as if it will continue through the season. The long range forecast which includes this winter, continues to call for cooler than average temperatures with higher than average rainfall amounts.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Sea Fog
Sea fog rolled into the area this morning and hung around for much of the day for the beaches.
From Sarasota County northward to western Pasco County, the damp cool air and clouds that make up sea fog made for a cloudy Wednesday.
From Sarasota County northward to western Pasco County, the damp cool air and clouds that make up sea fog made for a cloudy Wednesday.
The sun did eventually break out for Tampa and areas east and as a result air temperatures jumped to the upper 70's and lower 80's. However, along the beaches of Pasco, Pinellas, Manatee and Sarasota counties, the fog kept temperatures down in the low 70's with just a little sunshine breaking out late in the day. Many areas are still socked in with the fog as I write this.
I have included a visible satellite image from this afternoon that depicts the fog along the coast. Most of the white shaded area (fog/clouds) along the coast is the sea fog. This is typically only visible on "visible" satellite imagery during the day. We use visible imagery to best locate fog, as infrared imagery does not show it very well. Visible imagery uses reflected sunlight (like a camera) while infrared imagery uses temperature differences to sort between the surface and the clouds above. Because the clouds are on the surface when fog forms, the temperature difference is very little and as a result infrared imagery cannot differentiate between the the two.
Sea fog typically forms when the water surface temperatures are very close to the dew point of the airmass located over the water. The local winds then blow toward land, bringing that saturated airmass onshore as sea fog. This time of year, the water temperatures are in the 60's for the most part and when an air mass moves in with dew points in that range, the air mass becomes saturated. This causes the fog to form. Today's winds were light out of the south, bringing in moist air right off the Gulf of Mexico. The main mechanisms that can alleviate the fog, are surface heating, dry air and stronger winds.
This fog should appear again tomorrow morning as we see winds out of the SW, but those winds will increase late in the day allowing the fog to scour out. A cold front moving in later tomorrow will switch the winds around to the NW then N bringing in drier air (lower dewpoints). That will eliminate the threat for the sea fog on Friday.
Saturday, December 5, 2009
Monte Colburn of the Deadliest Catch in the studio!
Monte Colburn of the show Deadliest Catch was in the studio today. He and his brother Keith work on the boat the Wizard. This is the second time fisherman from the show have visited the 10 Connects studios. A few months ago the Hillstrand brothers from the Time Bandit visited. Monte Colburn summed it up best when he explained how they are just fisherman, but the show has made them celebrities. They'd just be fishing as usual if the show hadn't brought them notoriety. Now they fish and do public appearances but he's not complaining!
Friday, December 4, 2009
Flood Watch now in effect with 1-3" of rain expected
A Flood Watch has been issued for the entire Bay area beginning early Friday morning and continuing through midday Saturday. 1-3" of rain is expected between now and midday Saturday.
A stalled frontal boundary and a moist upper level southwesterly flow will bring rain showers back to the Bay area as early as sunrise Friday morning. The rain will begin slowly through Friday, but will increase in intensity late Friday afternoon and continue overnight into Saturday morning. Strong storms are possible especially Saturday morning as the front moves through. The primary threat would come in the form of gusty winds. The rain should end by midday Saturday allowing the Bay area to finally dry out.
Rainfall amounts will average between 1-3" for most of the area. Localized amounts of 3-5" will be possible especially south and east of Tampa, mainly in a line form SE Polk County to Punta Gorda and north of the Bay area along the Nature coast.
A Flood Watch is issued when heavy rains are expected and flooding is possible. If your area typically floods with heavy rainfall, you can expect some minor flooding especially Friday evening. Local rivers will rise as well and will likely surge 2 or 3 days after the rainfall ends. This would mean local rivers will be running higher than normal through Tuesday.
Meteorologist Bobby Deskins
bobbyd@10connects.com
Facebook: Bobby Deskins Weather
Twitter: bobbydweather
Blog: http://www.bobbydeskins.blogspot.com/
Related:
* Current forecast and live chat with meteorologists
* Tampa Bay Watches and Warnings
* Friday Family Events Cancelled
Bobby Deskins
Meteorologist 10 Connects
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Check out our new embeddable live radar from Forecastfirst.com
From: Deskins, Robert
Sent: Thursday, December 03, 2009 1:29 PM
To: 'blog@posterous.com'; 'facebook@posterous.com'
Subject: Check out our new embeddable live radar from Forecastfirst.com
Bobby Deskins
Meteorologist 10 Connects
Friday, November 13, 2009
Incredible Ida nor'easter
After making landfall near Dauphin, Alabama, Ida transitioned to an extra tropical low and formed a nor'easter that has ravaged the mid Atlantic states, especially the northern Outer Banks of North Carolina.
Much of the east coast from New Hampshire to Georgia have felt the effects of Ida's remnants with NJ, DE, VA and NC taking the brunt of the storm.
At one point yesterday, the minimum central pressure of the nor'easter was lower 15 miles east of Cape Hatteras than it was at landfall in Alabama as a tropical storm. Ida made landfall with a pressure of 999mb, while a measurement of 992mb was recorded off the Carolina coast Thursday, Nov 11, 2009. It was stronger along the east coast versus the Gulf coast!
Although winds have been strong, it is more the duration of those winds and their affect on the ocean that has caused the most damage. Nags Head, NC has sustained quite a bit of oceanfront damage to homes and parts of HWY 12.
Winds have been averaging in the 30's and 40's with wind gusts in the 50's and 60's with reports of hurricane force wind gusts (75 mph) in the tidewater area of Virgina. This area has experienced stronger storms before, but the damage is worse because the storm has been sitting here for 3 days now. That duration has allowed the storm to erode much of the protective dune system and the beach itself. As a result, as each successive high tide moves in, there is less in the way of natural protection for the property along the immediate coast. It's not like a hurricane or tropical storm that barrels through lasting a day or so. The longer this sits there, the easier it is for the sea to cause more damage.
Fortunately, the storm is now beginning to move back offshore toward the ESE and is loosing it's strength as it does so. This storm will go down in the history books as one of the worst as far as damage goes.
For a look at some raw video of damage in Nags Head, NC click here (courtesy of http://www.hurricanetrack.com/)
Much of the east coast from New Hampshire to Georgia have felt the effects of Ida's remnants with NJ, DE, VA and NC taking the brunt of the storm.At one point yesterday, the minimum central pressure of the nor'easter was lower 15 miles east of Cape Hatteras than it was at landfall in Alabama as a tropical storm. Ida made landfall with a pressure of 999mb, while a measurement of 992mb was recorded off the Carolina coast Thursday, Nov 11, 2009. It was stronger along the east coast versus the Gulf coast!
Although winds have been strong, it is more the duration of those winds and their affect on the ocean that has caused the most damage. Nags Head, NC has sustained quite a bit of oceanfront damage to homes and parts of HWY 12.
Winds have been averaging in the 30's and 40's with wind gusts in the 50's and 60's with reports of hurricane force wind gusts (75 mph) in the tidewater area of Virgina. This area has experienced stronger storms before, but the damage is worse because the storm has been sitting here for 3 days now. That duration has allowed the storm to erode much of the protective dune system and the beach itself. As a result, as each successive high tide moves in, there is less in the way of natural protection for the property along the immediate coast. It's not like a hurricane or tropical storm that barrels through lasting a day or so. The longer this sits there, the easier it is for the sea to cause more damage.
Fortunately, the storm is now beginning to move back offshore toward the ESE and is loosing it's strength as it does so. This storm will go down in the history books as one of the worst as far as damage goes.
For a look at some raw video of damage in Nags Head, NC click here (courtesy of http://www.hurricanetrack.com/)
Friday, August 28, 2009
Danny Shmanny!
Here's a quickie...
Just to give you an idea of the lack of convection associated with Danny's center right now, take a look at this satellite image and compare the thunderstorms in Tampa today to the lack there of surrounding the center of Danny. Sure there are 40mph sustained winds NE of the tropical storm's center, but that is about it. We had heavier rain and lightning here today than the area under Danny's center.
A more important thing to notice is the convection firing along the southeast Georgia and South Carolina coast and into their coastal waters. It is THIS setup that will allow Danny to strengthen and spread a little wind and rain as it moves up the east coast. That is a "baroclinic" development and not a typical "tropical cycle" development. Those storms near the coast are developing well outside of the storms center and are a result of the wind flow, an existing trough and airmass collisions that are taking place on Danny's western side. For Danny to strengthen tropically, you would see thunderstorms develop over the center.
Just think "nor'easter" as this ruins one of your days at the beach this weekend...if you consider that ruining it!
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Surf's Up!!! Thanks, Bill.
Hurricane Bill is churning in the Atlantic and and finally brightening up what has been a dismal summer for surf along the east coast.
As of 5 p.m. Thursday, August 20, 2009, the storm is a category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds near the center. It is drifting toward the NW at 18 mph and the forecast track takes it to the north and just east of Boston - who will get one heck of a nor'easter out of this by Sunday!
That track is great for surfers as it remains offshore, but pumps large swells to the coast. The hurricane force winds extend outward 125 miles while tropical storm force winds extend outward 260 miles. This is a big storm and because of it's large diameter of wind a large swell will be generated. Swell is basically created by "x amount of wind" blowing over "x amount of sea surface" for an "x amount of time". Increase any of those parameters, and you generally get bigger swell. The only problem is how your local beach break handles the large swells. Usually, the waves ends up "closing out" (entire wave breaking at one time - not as fun to surf) in most places, but there are a few...that will remain unlisted here, that will hold a larger swell. Hopefully they won't be too crowded.
High surf advisories go into effect along the NC coast Friday afternoon and will remain in effect through Sunday. Surf south of Cape lookout will approach the 7-10' range while the northern outer banks will be looking at 10-14' waves with a few higher sets. That's nearly triple overhead!
Here is a look at the current sea wave map for the North Atlantic. You can see Bill in the lower right. The lighter blues are 2-4' waves that have been lapping on the shores the past 2 days and the arrows are the swell direction. You can see they are headed right for the U.S. east coast.
The swell will continue to build through Saturday for the southeast coast, then slowly diminish into next work week - or the firs couple of "sick" days for surfer. I don't expect much to be left over along the southeast coast after Monday.
The northeast U.S. will be another story. Swell initially arriving from the southeast will be enhanced by a strong easterly component as the storm moves just east of Boston. This will create quite a mess as far as waves go, with quite a bit of swell direction change in a short amount of time. The largest and best swell to surf, will be the long trough swell Bill is now generating.
Take a look at this forecast for Sunday. A strong southeast swell will continue to provide much fun, but the winds from the storm will be affecting the New England coast - and it's surf.
The northeast U.S. should keep an eye on this storm as the track has actually shifted a little west the past couple of days. Either way, the surf will be up finally. Now, can this former NC surfer get some surf in the Gulf?
As of 5 p.m. Thursday, August 20, 2009, the storm is a category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds near the center. It is drifting toward the NW at 18 mph and the forecast track takes it to the north and just east of Boston - who will get one heck of a nor'easter out of this by Sunday!
That track is great for surfers as it remains offshore, but pumps large swells to the coast. The hurricane force winds extend outward 125 miles while tropical storm force winds extend outward 260 miles. This is a big storm and because of it's large diameter of wind a large swell will be generated. Swell is basically created by "x amount of wind" blowing over "x amount of sea surface" for an "x amount of time". Increase any of those parameters, and you generally get bigger swell. The only problem is how your local beach break handles the large swells. Usually, the waves ends up "closing out" (entire wave breaking at one time - not as fun to surf) in most places, but there are a few...that will remain unlisted here, that will hold a larger swell. Hopefully they won't be too crowded.
High surf advisories go into effect along the NC coast Friday afternoon and will remain in effect through Sunday. Surf south of Cape lookout will approach the 7-10' range while the northern outer banks will be looking at 10-14' waves with a few higher sets. That's nearly triple overhead!
Here is a look at the current sea wave map for the North Atlantic. You can see Bill in the lower right. The lighter blues are 2-4' waves that have been lapping on the shores the past 2 days and the arrows are the swell direction. You can see they are headed right for the U.S. east coast.The swell will continue to build through Saturday for the southeast coast, then slowly diminish into next work week - or the firs couple of "sick" days for surfer. I don't expect much to be left over along the southeast coast after Monday.
The northeast U.S. will be another story. Swell initially arriving from the southeast will be enhanced by a strong easterly component as the storm moves just east of Boston. This will create quite a mess as far as waves go, with quite a bit of swell direction change in a short amount of time. The largest and best swell to surf, will be the long trough swell Bill is now generating.Take a look at this forecast for Sunday. A strong southeast swell will continue to provide much fun, but the winds from the storm will be affecting the New England coast - and it's surf.
The northeast U.S. should keep an eye on this storm as the track has actually shifted a little west the past couple of days. Either way, the surf will be up finally. Now, can this former NC surfer get some surf in the Gulf?
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Dusty Tropics
Once in a while you will hear us mention Saharan dust storms and how they can affect tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic Ocean. Well for the past few days, I have been tracking a large area of that dust that is crossing the tropical waters of the Atlantic. Typically, a plume this large can severely inhibit the formation of tropical storms so tracking these can give forecasters a clue as to what might happen - or not happen.
The dust becomes airborne when large storms over the Sahara desert in Africa kick up the dust. That dust can inhibit tropical development as it tends to dry out the atmosphere. Studies have revealed that the anvil tops of thunderstorms can be reduced in size due to the presence of dust, but at the same time updrafts can be enhanced causing heavier rain and gustier winds within thunderstorms. This dust can also cause large algae blooms and can cool the surface water temperature and cool the atmosphere.
This latest image shows a large area of dust moving across the Caribbean from east to west centered from eastern Cuba to just east of Puerto Rico. (the red and yellow areas) The dust clouds are easiest to see using enhanced satellite techniques like the one used for this image, but sometimes the dust is so thick that it can be seen on "tru color" imagery which closely resembles visible pictures.
Not only can the dust affect development of thunderstorms and tropical systems, but it can be a nuisance to us as well. South Floridians especially are familiar with the dust as occasionally large areas drift over the southern part of the peninsula and deposit some of the larger particles. I have been in parts of the Caribbean like Barbados, where the dust can be heavy at times and cause air quality concerns. Looking at the latest image, it appears that the car washing business might increase this weekend and next week in Miami!
To learn more about Saharan dust plumes, check out this article from NASA. http://tiny.cc/GpOaN
The dust becomes airborne when large storms over the Sahara desert in Africa kick up the dust. That dust can inhibit tropical development as it tends to dry out the atmosphere. Studies have revealed that the anvil tops of thunderstorms can be reduced in size due to the presence of dust, but at the same time updrafts can be enhanced causing heavier rain and gustier winds within thunderstorms. This dust can also cause large algae blooms and can cool the surface water temperature and cool the atmosphere.
This latest image shows a large area of dust moving across the Caribbean from east to west centered from eastern Cuba to just east of Puerto Rico. (the red and yellow areas) The dust clouds are easiest to see using enhanced satellite techniques like the one used for this image, but sometimes the dust is so thick that it can be seen on "tru color" imagery which closely resembles visible pictures.Not only can the dust affect development of thunderstorms and tropical systems, but it can be a nuisance to us as well. South Floridians especially are familiar with the dust as occasionally large areas drift over the southern part of the peninsula and deposit some of the larger particles. I have been in parts of the Caribbean like Barbados, where the dust can be heavy at times and cause air quality concerns. Looking at the latest image, it appears that the car washing business might increase this weekend and next week in Miami!
To learn more about Saharan dust plumes, check out this article from NASA. http://tiny.cc/GpOaN
Friday, June 26, 2009
The "Cone of Silence". No, not Get Smart!
The "cone of silence" may refer to the sound proof area on the show Get Smart, but in weather terms, it refers to the area right above a radar that cannot been seen by the radar.
A typical Nataional Weather Service radar has a maximum tilt elevation of 19.5°. That means that as it scans around, the highest the radar can see is 19.5° above the earth's surface. Becasue of this, there is a large hole in the data created right over top of the radar. You can see rain all around it, but not above it.
A typical Nataional Weather Service radar has a maximum tilt elevation of 19.5°. That means that as it scans around, the highest the radar can see is 19.5° above the earth's surface. Becasue of this, there is a large hole in the data created right over top of the radar. You can see rain all around it, but not above it.
They are tough to see unless you have rain over the radar, but when you do they are easy to spot. This image shows an example of a cone of silence. Notice the hole in the radar relfectivity data. The radar itself is located right in the middle of that hole.
Because of the cone of silence, radar sites are generally placed at sites away from a population center. This is so that you can get accurate data for the most densely populated areas. They are also placed outside of urban areas because tall buildings can block the radar, literally blocking the view of the radar.
Now , for those of you old enough to remember the "Get Smart" version of the cone of silence, the next time it comes up you'll have a little tidbit of information to add to the conversation ...and you know how often that comes up!
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Biscayne Bay, Memorial Day Weekend 2009
Just thought I would include a cool panoramic picture of downtown Miami taken from my father-in-laws 32' Sea Ray on Memorial Day 2009. Storms stayed south of Miami for most of the day allowing us to enjoy a great day on the boat. It was a great setup for meteorologists and weather enthusiasts alike as you could enjoy the boat and swimming on the sand bar, while watching a decent cell grow to the south and produce quite a bit of lightning.
We did catch a few sprinkles as we headed north for home in the evening, but we were able to out run it - outside of the no wake zones of course!
If you are ever over in that area, check out the stilt houses built just outside Biscayne Bay. You are not allowed to live there anymore, but that would be a dream place to live as long as no storms threaten.
We did catch a few sprinkles as we headed north for home in the evening, but we were able to out run it - outside of the no wake zones of course!
If you are ever over in that area, check out the stilt houses built just outside Biscayne Bay. You are not allowed to live there anymore, but that would be a dream place to live as long as no storms threaten.
Southeast Stickiness
Last week I visited upstate New York for a family wedding. I was greeted with a cool and dry airmass that I have to admit was a nice break from the heat and humidity here in west-central Florida. Don't get me wrong, I actually like the warm weather, but it was nice to get a cool shot of air...like that first cold front that comes through in the fall bringing the falls first shot of cool dry air.
The difference in airmasses reminded of the differences in regional weather. I know that many of the residents in the Tampa Bay area are from other places and/or have family spread out across the country, so I thought I would show you a few graphics that you can find on our new website http://www.forecastfirst.com/.
First off, lets take a look at the heat. As far as near or above average temperatures go, the heat as been mainly in the southeast U.S.
The dewpoints are a measure of the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. High dewpoints are what make the air feel moist and sticky, while low dewpoints make it feel dry. As you can see, the southeast and Florida have very high dewpoints. (not that this is out of the ordinary)
You can see more graphics like this on the new site. Take some time to look around as there is a lot to look at. In upcoming blogs, I will highlight specific areas on the site helping to point out just some of the great stuff on there. Enjoy the weather and enjoy the site!
The difference in airmasses reminded of the differences in regional weather. I know that many of the residents in the Tampa Bay area are from other places and/or have family spread out across the country, so I thought I would show you a few graphics that you can find on our new website http://www.forecastfirst.com/.
First off, lets take a look at the heat. As far as near or above average temperatures go, the heat as been mainly in the southeast U.S.
The dewpoints are a measure of the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. High dewpoints are what make the air feel moist and sticky, while low dewpoints make it feel dry. As you can see, the southeast and Florida have very high dewpoints. (not that this is out of the ordinary)
You can see more graphics like this on the new site. Take some time to look around as there is a lot to look at. In upcoming blogs, I will highlight specific areas on the site helping to point out just some of the great stuff on there. Enjoy the weather and enjoy the site!
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Models Sniffing Tropical Development
Everyday, whether I am making a forecast or not, I check the long range models to see the overall patterns in the atmosphere. The past few days have been interesting as far as the long range GFS is
concerned.
The model is trying to forecast a tropical cyclone forming south of Cuba and then intensifying and moving that system N then NNE over Cuba and right up through the heart of the Bahamas. All of this in the time frame of Tuesday through Friday of next week. The image here is on 8 a.m. Thursday June 11, next week. If this develops and takes the course it has been suggesting, two big IF's, we would be spared the worst of the storm, but Miami and the rest of southeast Florida would really need to pay attention. The GFS has a tendency to pop these systems this time of year and this far out in time, but it can't be written off as a fluke. We typically look for development this time of year in the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico and those storms typically take a NW-N-NE track as well.
Also, an upward motion pulse is headed towards the western Caribbean around that time. This is a look at the potential for upward velocities, meaning broad areas of rising air. These areas traverse the intertropical convergence zone and vary from rising air to sinking air. The best chance to get storms to develop occurs when there is a large area of rising air. In this image, the green represents the rising air while the orange shows the sinking air.
So, yeah it is a little ways out, but I will be watching this closely. This is a good time to make sure your hurricane kit is ready to go, just in case this develops. Stay tuned!
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Take a look at the latest satellite image from the Gulf of Mexico and let me know what you think. Water temperatures are just about 80F under that cloud mass and some models are trying to make a closed low out of this by late Wednesday and into Thursday before it moves onshore near the Florida panhandle and Alabama border. Does that sound familiar?
We just had a storm (no tropical classification) form over the Gulf a couple of weeks ago. That one too moved onshore near the same area and with some gusty winds and heavy rains. The NHC is not saying anything about it and I don't think it will get much attention, but regardless of what the NHC does, if I were in that area of the Gulf coast I would certainly be watching the forecast for Thursday and Friday. Who cares if it has a name or number, it could be a rainy and windy day! I'll keep an eye on it.
The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins today, so I figured I would talk a little about the storm naming process.
The World Meteorological Organization maintains and updates six lists of tropical cyclone names for the Atlantic basin, one list per year with each list repeated once every six years. Before 1953 latitude and longitude numbers were used to refer to storms, however that proved to be a little confusing. That's why in 1953 they started using names to refer to the storms. The lists initially contained only female names, but since 1979 male names were added and now each list alternates between male and female.
Devastating storms that cause major damage and/or are very costly have their names removed from the list for sensitivity reasons. Some of those storms include Andrew 1992, Katrina 2005 and even Ike from 2008. The WMO then replaces the name with a new one.
This year's forecast is for an near average storm season which would mean around 10 named storms.
Here is this years list.
2009
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda
Forecasters at Colorado State University issued an update on their 2009 Atlantic hurricane season forecast today and are now calling for average or just below average hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin.
Citing a neutral ENSO now with the possibility of a weak El Nino developing later this summer and cooler than average Atlantic water temperatures, Dr. Philip J. Klotzback and William M. Gray are now calling for 11 names storms and 5 hurricanes with 2 of those becoming major hurricanes. An average hurricane season consists of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes with 3 becoming a major hurricane, category 3 or higher.
They are also calling for a reduced risk for a landfalling storm on the Unites States coast. The average over the last century is 52% while this year there is only a 48% chance for a U.S. coastline strike. According to their forecast, Florida and the eastern U.S. seaboard have a 32% chance for a landfalling storm this year.
Tropical Depression 1 formed about 300 miles ENE of Cape Hatteras, NC earlier today. We have been tracking the low for a few days and it finally became organized enough to consider it a depression. There is no threat to the coast other than some scattered showers and a little breeze from the northeast. I forecasted for that area for 6 years before coming to 10 Connects in Tampa. Of source I was tracking this closely for friends on the outer banks and am really glad that it won't be a major weather maker for them.
The depression does come early (preseason if you will) as the hurricane season doesn't start until Monday, June 1. This years forecast call for an average season numbers wise, but don't be alarmed that we got one early this year. That happens from time to time and does not really mean much for the forecast of the season.
One thing that we can take from this is the location that if formed - in close to land. With El Nino coming on and cooler than average water off the African coast, it appears that a lot of the tropical development this year will occur near the coast. This means less warning time, thus less time to get ready for the storm. Leave it up to the weather man to preach preparedness, but of course we always should be ready to for anything. Remember, a good hurricane kit would work nicely for any type of disaster, much less a hurricane.
The National Hurricane Center has made a few changes to the forecasts this year. Keep checking back as I will talk about some of those next time.
Until then, enjoy the weather.
The low pressure that originated over western Cuba last week and has been responsible for the soggy week we have had is now moving NW near the Mississippi and Alabama state line.
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased near the center of rotation and the overall cloud feature suggests some strengthening. The National Hurricane Center issued a tropical weather statement this morning at 1:55 am EDT giving the low a better than 50% chance it to form into a tropical depression before landfall. As of their 8 am EDT update, the storm was located just 75 miles off the Alabama coastline and is now not expected to intensify into a depression. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled to investigate the system has been canceled.
I am including an image of the satellite picture and the water temperature map. The system is now moving onshore so it's a little too late to call it a depression but it may have not even met the technical requirements for a purely tropical system, or depression. Typical tropical systems form over warmer water. It has been over water that was near the 80F degree mark, but all of the rain and wind associated with the low has cooled the surface water temperatures to the upper 70's. Also, a typical tropical system has high pressure aloft, while this system is basically a stacked low pressure system - a low at the surface and aloft.
Splitting hairs like this really doesn't matter to much to the coastal residents of Mississippi, Alabama and the western panhandle of Florida. Either way, they are receiving heavy rains and gusty winds as the storms roll in.
Hurricane season note: This is a good eye opener for us here in Florida as the nature of development in close to the coast is something that I think we will see this hurricane season. We are seeing cooler than average water temperatures in the east Atlantic and an El Nino is building. El Nino's typically produce more wind shear in the central tropical Atlantic resulting in a more harsh environment for tropical development. Water temperature have cooled recently, but are expected to be relatively warm near the U.S. coastline. These factors all argue for less development offshore and more near shore. The lesson here is that we need to be prepared. As storms develop, and develop quickly, near shore, we will have much less time to get ready. Stay tuned for our 10 Connects hurricane special Eye on the Storms 2009 airing next Saturday, May 30.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
