Forecasters at Colorado State University issued an update on their 2009 Atlantic hurricane season forecast today and are now calling for average or just below average hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin.
Citing a neutral ENSO now with the possibility of a weak El Nino developing later this summer and cooler than average Atlantic water temperatures, Dr. Philip J. Klotzback and William M. Gray are now calling for 11 names storms and 5 hurricanes with 2 of those becoming major hurricanes. An average hurricane season consists of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes with 3 becoming a major hurricane, category 3 or higher.
They are also calling for a reduced risk for a landfalling storm on the Unites States coast. The average over the last century is 52% while this year there is only a 48% chance for a U.S. coastline strike. According to their forecast, Florida and the eastern U.S. seaboard have a 32% chance for a landfalling storm this year.