Danny Shmanny!

Here's a quickie...

Just to give you an idea of the lack of convection associated with Danny's center right now, take a look at this satellite image and compare the thunderstorms in Tampa today to the lack there of surrounding the center of Danny. Sure there are 40mph sustained winds NE of the tropical storm's center, but that is about it. We had heavier rain and lightning here today than the area under Danny's center.

A more important thing to notice is the convection firing along the southeast Georgia and South Carolina coast and into their coastal waters. It is THIS setup that will allow Danny to strengthen and spread a little wind and rain as it moves up the east coast. That is a "baroclinic" development and not a typical "tropical cycle" development. Those storms near the coast are developing well outside of the storms center and are a result of the wind flow, an existing trough and airmass collisions that are taking place on Danny's western side. For Danny to strengthen tropically, you would see thunderstorms develop over the center.

Just think "nor'easter" as this ruins one of your days at the beach this weekend...if you consider that ruining it!

Surf's Up!!! Thanks, Bill.

Hurricane Bill is churning in the Atlantic and and finally brightening up what has been a dismal summer for surf along the east coast.

As of 5 p.m. Thursday, August 20, 2009, the storm is a category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds near the center. It is drifting toward the NW at 18 mph and the forecast track takes it to the north and just east of Boston - who will get one heck of a nor'easter out of this by Sunday!

That track is great for surfers as it remains offshore, but pumps large swells to the coast. The hurricane force winds extend outward 125 miles while tropical storm force winds extend outward 260 miles. This is a big storm and because of it's large diameter of wind a large swell will be generated. Swell is basically created by "x amount of wind" blowing over "x amount of sea surface" for an "x amount of time". Increase any of those parameters, and you generally get bigger swell. The only problem is how your local beach break handles the large swells. Usually, the waves ends up "closing out" (entire wave breaking at one time - not as fun to surf) in most places, but there are a few...that will remain unlisted here, that will hold a larger swell. Hopefully they won't be too crowded.

High surf advisories go into effect along the NC coast Friday afternoon and will remain in effect through Sunday. Surf south of Cape lookout will approach the 7-10' range while the northern outer banks will be looking at 10-14' waves with a few higher sets. That's nearly triple overhead!

Here is a look at the current sea wave map for the North Atlantic. You can see Bill in the lower right. The lighter blues are 2-4' waves that have been lapping on the shores the past 2 days and the arrows are the swell direction. You can see they are headed right for the U.S. east coast.


The swell will continue to build through Saturday for the southeast coast, then slowly diminish into next work week - or the firs couple of "sick" days for surfer. I don't expect much to be left over along the southeast coast after Monday.

The northeast U.S. will be another story. Swell initially arriving from the southeast will be enhanced by a strong easterly component as the storm moves just east of Boston. This will create quite a mess as far as waves go, with quite a bit of swell direction change in a short amount of time. The largest and best swell to surf, will be the long trough swell Bill is now generating.

Take a look at this forecast for Sunday. A strong southeast swell will continue to provide much fun, but the winds from the storm will be affecting the New England coast - and it's surf.

The northeast U.S. should keep an eye on this storm as the track has actually shifted a little west the past couple of days. Either way, the surf will be up finally. Now, can this former NC surfer get some surf in the Gulf?