Take a look at the latest satellite image from the Gulf of Mexico and let me know what you think. Water temperatures are just about 80F under that cloud mass and some models are trying to make a closed low out of this by late Wednesday and into Thursday before it moves onshore near the Florida panhandle and Alabama border. Does that sound familiar?

We just had a storm (no tropical classification) form over the Gulf a couple of weeks ago. That one too moved onshore near the same area and with some gusty winds and heavy rains. The NHC is not saying anything about it and I don't think it will get much attention, but regardless of what the NHC does, if I were in that area of the Gulf coast I would certainly be watching the forecast for Thursday and Friday. Who cares if it has a name or number, it could be a rainy and windy day! I'll keep an eye on it.

Tropical Depression 1 formed about 300 miles ENE of Cape Hatteras, NC earlier today. We have been tracking the low for a few days and it finally became organized enough to consider it a depression. There is no threat to the coast other than some scattered showers and a little breeze from the northeast. I forecasted for that area for 6 years before coming to 10 Connects in Tampa. Of source I was tracking this closely for friends on the outer banks and am really glad that it won't be a major weather maker for them.

The depression does come early (preseason if you will) as the hurricane season doesn't start until Monday, June 1. This years forecast call for an average season numbers wise, but don't be alarmed that we got one early this year. That happens from time to time and does not really mean much for the forecast of the season.

One thing that we can take from this is the location that if formed - in close to land. With El Nino coming on and cooler than average water off the African coast, it appears that a lot of the tropical development this year will occur near the coast. This means less warning time, thus less time to get ready for the storm. Leave it up to the weather man to preach preparedness, but of course we always should be ready to for anything. Remember, a good hurricane kit would work nicely for any type of disaster, much less a hurricane.

The National Hurricane Center has made a few changes to the forecasts this year. Keep checking back as I will talk about some of those next time.

Until then, enjoy the weather.

The low pressure that originated over western Cuba last week and has been responsible for the soggy week we have had is now moving NW near the Mississippi and Alabama state line.
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased near the center of rotation and the overall cloud feature suggests some strengthening. The National Hurricane Center issued a tropical weather statement this morning at 1:55 am EDT giving the low a better than 50% chance it to form into a tropical depression before landfall. As of their 8 am EDT update, the storm was located just 75 miles off the Alabama coastline and is now not expected to intensify into a depression. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled to investigate the system has been canceled.

I am including an image of the satellite picture and the water temperature map. The system is now moving onshore so it's a little too late to call it a depression but it may have not even met the technical requirements for a purely tropical system, or depression. Typical tropical systems form over warmer water. It has been over water that was near the 80F degree mark, but all of the rain and wind associated with the low has cooled the surface water temperatures to the upper 70's. Also, a typical tropical system has high pressure aloft, while this system is basically a stacked low pressure system - a low at the surface and aloft.





Splitting hairs like this really doesn't matter to much to the coastal residents of Mississippi, Alabama and the western panhandle of Florida. Either way, they are receiving heavy rains and gusty winds as the storms roll in.

Hurricane season note: This is a good eye opener for us here in Florida as the nature of development in close to the coast is something that I think we will see this hurricane season. We are seeing cooler than average water temperatures in the east Atlantic and an El Nino is building. El Nino's typically produce more wind shear in the central tropical Atlantic resulting in a more harsh environment for tropical development. Water temperature have cooled recently, but are expected to be relatively warm near the U.S. coastline. These factors all argue for less development offshore and more near shore. The lesson here is that we need to be prepared. As storms develop, and develop quickly, near shore, we will have much less time to get ready. Stay tuned for our 10 Connects hurricane special Eye on the Storms 2009 airing next Saturday, May 30.