Models Sniffing Tropical Development

Everyday, whether I am making a forecast or not, I check the long range models to see the overall patterns in the atmosphere. The past few days have been interesting as far as the long range GFS is

concerned.

The model is trying to forecast a tropical cyclone forming south of Cuba and then intensifying and moving that system N then NNE over Cuba and right up through the heart of the Bahamas. All of this in the time frame of Tuesday through Friday of next week. The image here is on 8 a.m. Thursday June 11, next week. If this develops and takes the course it has been suggesting, two big IF's, we would be spared the worst of the storm, but Miami and the rest of southeast Florida would really need to pay attention. The GFS has a tendency to pop these systems this time of year and this far out in time, but it can't be written off as a fluke. We typically look for development this time of year in the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico and those storms typically take a NW-N-NE track as well.

Also, an upward motion pulse is headed towards the western Caribbean around that time. This is a look at the potential for upward velocities, meaning broad areas of rising air. These areas traverse the intertropical convergence zone and vary from rising air to sinking air. The best chance to get storms to develop occurs when there is a large area of rising air. In this image, the green represents the rising air while the orange shows the sinking air.

So, yeah it is a little ways out, but I will be watching this closely. This is a good time to make sure your hurricane kit is ready to go, just in case this develops. Stay tuned!