The low pressure that originated over western Cuba last week and has been responsible for the soggy week we have had is now moving NW near the Mississippi and Alabama state line.
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased near the center of rotation and the overall cloud feature suggests some strengthening. The National Hurricane Center issued a tropical weather statement this morning at 1:55 am EDT giving the low a better than 50% chance it to form into a tropical depression before landfall. As of their 8 am EDT update, the storm was located just 75 miles off the Alabama coastline and is now not expected to intensify into a depression. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled to investigate the system has been canceled.

I am including an image of the satellite picture and the water temperature map. The system is now moving onshore so it's a little too late to call it a depression but it may have not even met the technical requirements for a purely tropical system, or depression. Typical tropical systems form over warmer water. It has been over water that was near the 80F degree mark, but all of the rain and wind associated with the low has cooled the surface water temperatures to the upper 70's. Also, a typical tropical system has high pressure aloft, while this system is basically a stacked low pressure system - a low at the surface and aloft.





Splitting hairs like this really doesn't matter to much to the coastal residents of Mississippi, Alabama and the western panhandle of Florida. Either way, they are receiving heavy rains and gusty winds as the storms roll in.

Hurricane season note: This is a good eye opener for us here in Florida as the nature of development in close to the coast is something that I think we will see this hurricane season. We are seeing cooler than average water temperatures in the east Atlantic and an El Nino is building. El Nino's typically produce more wind shear in the central tropical Atlantic resulting in a more harsh environment for tropical development. Water temperature have cooled recently, but are expected to be relatively warm near the U.S. coastline. These factors all argue for less development offshore and more near shore. The lesson here is that we need to be prepared. As storms develop, and develop quickly, near shore, we will have much less time to get ready. Stay tuned for our 10 Connects hurricane special Eye on the Storms 2009 airing next Saturday, May 30.